San Diego’s Most Resilient Industries

Recently released unemployment data for San Diego and the nation as a whole created some buzz in labor market news, with San Diego's unemployment rate reaching 5.2%, notably a level not seen since July of 2021, higher than the national rate of 4.6% and lower than the 6.1% rate in California overall.

Unemployment rates can have seasonal shifts, making July and June frequently high unemployment months in San Diego; however, compared to the spike in June/July of 2024, this marks a high point.



Figure: Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division,https://labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sand$pds.pdf. Explanations for the increase in unemployment range from it being a regional reflection of the same economic downturn experienced across the US, to the impact of AI on the tech industry, the reduced employment of young seasonal workers, and the seasonally unemployed support workers in schools within the government sector.

In this analysis, the Center for Research and Evaluation (CR+E) examined longer-term employment data to highlight industries that are resilient to economic impact. It's essential to note that other factors can also impact the stability an industry or occupation provides. High-paying jobs, or jobs with large severance packages, provide a safety net buffering longer job search periods, and some jobs with lower unemployment rates may be aged out of or lower quality (hours, pay, turnover, etc.). This analysis provides a narrow examination of unemployment rankings, rates, and job growth and availability, offering insight into how these industries compare. 

Each factor considered highlights a specific industry as being particularly “resilient” by that metric.
 

Total Job Count and Job Growth Over Time: Health Care and Private Education

According to the Employment Development Department’s comparison of July 2024 and July 2025 employment, private education and health services led in year-over-year advancements (contributing 14,400 jobs). The total number of jobs these industries represent is reflected over a 10-year period as well, where “Government” industry data (Lightcast, 2025) includes many private educational roles, increasing 16%, and “Healthcare and Social Assistance” increasing by the second largest percent (13%).

When looking at changes in jobs over the last decade, on average, jobs increased the second most in Health Care and Social Assistance (amounting to an increase of ~4% per year), just under Transportation and Warehousing, or looked at another way, increasing by 47% between 2014 and 2024.

Between 2014 and 2024, there was a 15% increase in total number of jobs, 35% of which were in “Health care and Social Assistance.”




 

Proportion of Unemployment[1]: "Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services"

Despite current uncertainty about how AI and economic shifts will impact technical STEM-related fields, the "Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services" industry (whose occupations span from software developers to lawyers and civil engineers) has historically had relatively low unemployment rates. It can be seen just under "Government", encompassing postsecondary teachers and elementary school teachers highlighted in the previous section.

When examined based on the proportion of unemployment total in San Diego (2014-2024), "Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services" represented between 3-6% over the years (reaching its peak of 6% in 2023 and 2024).

Some industries represent such a large proportion of jobs that it's essential to examine both the ranking job count and the unemployment share to understand where some industries may be carrying more or less of their "share". "Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services" represents an average share of 4% of the unemployment (2014-2024) and an average 10% share of jobs[2].

[1] Management of Companies and Enterprises (55) was excluded from this part of the analysis, as accurate unemployment data was not available, and it was within the bottom 5 in terms of job contribution.
[2] Jobs counts for each year were averaged across 2014-2024 to get an “average” years count for each industry, and from this a percent was calculated to compare to unemployment proportion.

Unemployment Rate: “Manufacturing”

Unemployment rates, distinct from simply counting the number of unemployed individuals, had to be calculated using 5-year estimates for San Diego PUMA regions from the American Community Survey, as unemployment data at the county level is unavailable by industry. Sub-industry numbers were aggregated[1] to provide broad 2-digit industry unemployment rates for San Diego, as shown below.

This categorizes industries in a slightly different way, still placing "Health Care" high on the list, but separating social assistance as a distinct group, which is lower in terms of unemployment rate and total jobs provided. "Government" as an industry is still ranked highly in terms of providing relatively large number of jobs while having a lower unemployment rate, but in this table we also see “Manufacturing as an industry highlighted in terms of providing large numbers of jobs, but having a relatively low unemployment rate compared to industries such as "Retail", "Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation", or "Construction.”
 

The Center for Research + Evaluation at UC San Diego Extended Studies

The Center for Research and Evaluation (CR+E) has a mission to promote positive change in the local community and beyond through data-driven research. CR+E partners with nonprofits, community, and academic institutions to support projects centered around workforce development, education, youth services, health, and arts and culture. The expert team employs a wide range of research methodologies and statistical techniques to support every stage of the research design, from identifying funding opportunities and grant writing to program monitoring and evaluation reporting.

To learn more about the Center’s services and connect with the team, visit the Center for Research + Evaluation, or reach them by phone at 858-822-0747.